Browse questions by topic, symbol, month, or whether the answer includes an actionable takeaway.
The S&P is unchanged, while the Nasdaq is down 250 points.
Stock splits are generally a good thing as they allow more people to participate and make stocks more tradeable. However, the impact on the company itself is considered a wash, and the results over time are random.
Emotional neutrality is an advantage when selling premium on both sides with no directional bias. It allows for a more balanced approach to managing the trade.
The speaker suggests selling puts on stocks like Nike, Uber, Micron, and others, arguing that selling puts is a better strategy than trying to catch a falling knife. They emphasize that selling puts can be a way to profit from volatility and avoid the risk of buying a stock that might continue to decline.
The speaker keeps their short puts and does not make adjustments.
The speaker suggests that stocks under $30 can be viable for trading, but stocks under $15 are less popular for selling premium. They also mention that the liquidity and premium available are more important factors than the stock price itself.
The speaker cannot provide an answer due to potential insider information, but they speculate that it may not happen before the end of 2026.
For an account size of $170,000, the speaker suggests risking no more than $10,000 on undefined risk trades and between $1,000 to $1,700 on defined risk trades. The risk percentage is around 5% of the account size.
SKHY is tradable, and the speaker has traded it a couple of times. The speaker mentions that it's very tradable and that the market there was tradable. The speaker also mentions that the implied volatility is high, but it's not a concern as long as the trader is comfortable with the risk.
The wheel strategy is up to the trader if they want to implement it on oversold stocks.
The speaker suggests adjusting positions daily to maintain a zero beta or similar, and checking delta and P&L for each position.
SanDisk's stock is down $60 at 1288. The speaker mentions it's perfect for a strangle position.
Algo trading is a significant part of the market, with algorithms handling a large portion of trading volume. They are not emotional and focus on mathematical models rather than subjective market direction.
The speaker is considering a short position in Microsoft, but is not yet committed. They plan to short Microsoft if the stock reaches $500 before the show ends.
The speaker suggests that while there is a lack of transparency in private credit markets, it doesn't necessarily mean there's a hidden risk. They mention that these markets are usually tied to interest rates and have flexible variable rates, and they are on the books of the companies involved. However, they also express concern about the private derivatives market being more risky.
The speaker believes that lack of transparency is a risky thing, and that the lack of transparency in the private credit market is not good. However, the lack of transparency in the over-the-counter derivatives market is even worse, with risks that are not visible.
It is possible to arbitrage in illiquid markets, but not in listed places due to lack of fungibility, high fees, and wide spreads. Arbitrage opportunities between prediction exchanges are limited, and holding positions for long periods is not practical for retail traders.
No, AI will not make traders obsolete because the future of value is on content and creativity.
Tom is long Delta, not technically long CL. He is short puts and short calls, with calls further out of the money than puts.
The speaker acknowledges the rotation, noting that Meta, Google, and AMD are down, while other stocks are up.
The win rate is not a meaningless statistic. It is important because building a process and methodology to know how to win is valuable. Some people just don't know how to win, and this leads to hoping for outlier moves or lottery tickets instead of focusing on consistent winning strategies.
The speaker suggests selling a strangle with deltas between 16 to 22, and mentions that the expiration could be September or October, with a recommendation to roll to October in a week.
It's better to sell covered calls when the stock is down for the day, as it allows for higher volatility and better pricing. Selling puts into weakness is also preferred.
The 5 DTE includes the weekend and is based on calendar days, not trading days.
The speaker changed the question from closing above 315 to 320, and stated a 70% chance of closing above 320 by Friday.
A strangle in Hood with 80 strike put and 115 strike call for about 240.
The speaker acknowledges that this is a common scenario and that it can lead to significant losses.
Yes, the speaker has experienced this multiple times, including in silver and Micron this year. They mention that such events happen roughly 1% of the time and have occurred more frequently than they would like.
It's a different account. I am not good on the on the I on the iPad. Um moving around.
The speaker suggests that gold's recent performance may be a bounce rather than a genuine flight to quality, given its significant drop and subsequent recovery.
The speaker believes the rally is not based on economic data but is a cyclical trading range.
The speaker suggests that FOMC minutes are often digested by the market, and people attribute market movements to these minutes, even though they are usually in overbought or oversold situations. The speaker implies that the market is already priced in everything, and the minutes are not a significant factor.
The speaker discusses how tariff refunds, such as those received by Apple, can affect corporate earnings. They argue that these refunds are not new information and were already factored into earnings expectations. The speaker suggests that the impact of these refunds on earnings is not as significant as it might appear, as the refunds were anticipated and the market already priced them in.
Buying options is not a fair bet as implied volatility can crush returns before the stock even moves. It does not pay, and the outlier move where it pays is rare and hard to achieve.
The speaker believes that trading earnings is most effective when volatility is high, as this provides the best opportunities. They also emphasize the importance of avoiding buying premium and staying outside the expected move, preferring small wins over large risks.
The speaker believes Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and XRP have limited upside and are at or near their cycle lows. They suggest a short-term outlook where the market may sell off, potentially whacking Bitcoin the most. The speaker is long Bitcoin but acknowledges the risks and regulatory environment.
The S&P is up 40, and the market has been trading green on the screen.
The speaker mentions that the ZB (likely the 10-year Treasury bond) traded in the 107 handle, which is a reference to the price level. They suggest that this is a guaranteed rate hike, indicating that the elevated yields are a sign of anticipated interest rate increases.
A meltup is a term used to describe a market rally that is more intense than a regular rally. It is characterized by a significant increase in prices over a short period, often leading to a rapid and substantial rise in the market.
IVR is available on the platform but is mislabeled as IBP (implied volatility percentile). It can be found in the drop-down menu or by contacting support. The speaker uses IVR for consistency and context around implied volatility.
The speaker suggests that using the VIX as a gauge is useful, but prefers forward/VX for daily volatility movement. They note that the VIX predicts future closing values, while forward/VX reflects daily changes. The speaker emphasizes consistency in using a single metric.
The speaker says that the line about small really being big is their big line.
Because I listen to ideas and value them regardless of their source.
It's a sign of potential AI investment, but the speaker is skeptical about it being a bubble.
Usually you get a V spike on a down day, but you'll get a V spike in ETFs like the Q's and SPY. You might actually get a little bit of volatility contraction in some of the stocks.
The decision is subjective and depends on volatility. In high volatility, shorter-term options (30 days) are preferred. In low volatility, longer-term options (60 days) are preferred to synthetically increase volatility exposure.
Rising leverage can be a sign of confidence as it indicates investors are taking on more debt to invest. However, it also makes the next selloff more dangerous because increased leverage can amplify losses during market downturns.
The speaker discusses selling puts in the Q's, 45-day SI puts, and NQ futures, but the answer is not fully provided in the transcript.
They are similar in terms of buying power and leverage, but NQ is more capital efficient.
The speaker does not have thoughts on BU, stating they discussed it earlier and prefer being long rather than short.
It takes time. IVR really works after one year, but after six months, you can kind of roll with it because it's probably going to be pretty fair. But a year, everything we do with existing stocks is goes one back one year in time. Now, we you could go back longer, you can go back two years or three years, but I don't think it's as effective. I think one year, we did a lot of research on this, one year is the most effective statistic um when it comes to IVR. If you're using like things like beta or stuff like that, you can use three months or six months, but if you're using IVR, I think one year is probably the most accurate. It's subjective, but it's probably the most accurate. SpaceX, I would say after 6 months, you're probably good to go.
The speaker suggests preferring ETF options for high-level trading but recommends futures for specific commodities like oil (CL) and gold (GC) due to liquidity and tradability. ETFs are preferred for certain assets like silver (SLV) and gold (GC) based on liquidity and tradability. The key factors are liquidity, tradability, contract size, and risk leverage.
Hood is the speaker's best performer this year. They buy Robin Hood on every down tick and sell puts on every down tick. They also sell puts in Coinbase when the stock gets to around 140, under 150ish.
The speaker suggests that if ES (E-mini S&P 500) has an IV percentile around 31, SPX (S&P 500) should be in a similar range. If not, it indicates a potential issue with the data feed or platform.
The speaker mentions checking out 'atsnoff on money' on their YouTube channel.
The go-to strategies include premium selling in AMD and SpaceX, and monitoring market movements for potential trades.
No, it doesn't matter. The board's votes are aligned with management, and passive investors like BlackRock and Vanguard are unlikely to challenge management. The optics of such a move could be disastrous for the company, but it has no real influence on markets.
In a fast gap, the first move you can make is if you want to go inverted, just to flatten out your deltas, go right ahead. And then after that, just kind of refix just fix it when you get a chance.
Goals change with market conditions, such as high volatility or low volatility. Trading is an art and science, and adjustments are made based on market changes.
It should make you feel good, but always be aware of what you're doing. It depends on what you did. Taking the risk, was the risk reasonable for the return that you got and what it might teach you is, you know, what? You're comfortable taking more risk. So, you know, you might have thought you just were stuck in a rut grinding and all of a sudden you go, 'Wow, I like this.' Now, if you think that it just happened and the stars aligned and seven things had to happen which are all unusual and they happen, you might want to pull that back a little bit. What I wouldn't do is keep pressing. I What I wouldn't do So, if you took some more risk, you're comfortable there, say, 'I'm okay keep some of that risk, taking a little bit off, maybe not going back to where you were, but hopefully you'll learn from it.' And I wouldn't be terrified. I'd just keep in the back of your mind, 'Oh, you know what? I'm going to average, you know, um $1,000 or $2,000 or $5,000 or $10,000 a week.' It just doesn't work like that. So, what happened to you here is actually more common and especially most investors, they make a lot of their money, and most investors and most traders make a lot of their money in in
It depends on how quickly it happened and how much time you have left. If the position was against you and it comes back, you might leave it if you still believe in your original thesis. If it was a quick recovery, you might close it and move on.
The risk is the market makers on, and the chance of making 50% of the trade is close to 88%.
The speaker prefers private companies as they are easier to operate, especially in regulated spaces. They have never gone public with the intention of selling the company, and it happens naturally when the business is acquired or listed.
The best time to put on a delta neutral strangle is when implied volatility is really high. Adjust the strangle whenever you get a little bit uncomfortable. If one delta gets to two times the other delta, adjust the position to neutralize it.
The speaker suggests that while the market is experiencing a strong upward move, it's unclear if this is a sustainable trend. They caution that until there are signs of a pullback or a crack, entering the market could be painful.
Roll up the untested side (put spread) with 44 days to expiration. The speaker suggests sitting on the trade unless the thesis changes.
Prediction markets are seen as a novelty wrapped in crypto rails, with high fees and primarily used for gambling. They are not considered real financial markets due to their speculative nature and high costs.
Wash trading is the practice of creating artificial volume by placing trades that cancel each other out, often to inflate the appearance of market activity. It can be incentivized by exchanges to attract market makers and create liquidity.
Viewers want to see the hot product, which creates FOMO and can lead to bad markets.
Maintaining fair markets is crucial for public trading platforms, as they are responsible for the environment in which trading occurs.
The S&P 500's quarterly rebalance involves adjusting the index's constituent stocks, which can lead to mechanical buying from index funds that must own the stock regardless of valuation. This can create market movements as funds adjust their holdings.
The inclusion effect was historically substantial, but it has weakened as hedge funds and Wall Street desks increasingly anticipate likely additions before they are officially announced.
The speaker does not trade earnings, but they have done trades related to specific companies like McDonald's and Intel.
Covered calls, selling puts, shorting puts, bear call or put credit spreads, and micro futures.
They should be happy for trying and learning from the experience.
The refinancing of low-rate corporate debt could have significant market implications, potentially leading to volatility and affecting various sectors, including tech and financial markets.
The speaker believes the war is off before it even started, and mentions that oil prices have dropped by $6, which affects the rally.
The 30-year average for mortgage rates is around 5% to 5.2%, with the speaker noting that it was closer to 7% in the early 80s and late 90s.
The speaker acknowledges that averaging down on losing option trades is not a hard rule and can make sense in certain situations. They mention that they have done it, but it's not a habit. They also note that averaging down on winning trades is not common.
The market was selling off due to bonds and other factors, but there was more to it that wasn't visible. The situation is compared to a past event where a hedge fund manager's fund was blown out, leading to a market turnaround.
The speaker would have considered putting money into the deal if Ken Griffin had called, but he would have been cautious and not necessarily invested directly.
The US Treasury's support for the Japanese yen is a symbolic move, not a significant financial commitment. It may be slightly bullish for bonds but not for the dollar or euro.
The expected move is $21.
No, the expected move is based on the options implied volatility, not open interest.
The speaker suggests that even if liquidity or volatility becomes skewed, markets won't get too wide during the day. High-frequency firms have handled such situations, and models are based on normal liquidity. If spreads do widen, a contrarian approach could be taken, but it's unlikely. The speaker advises not to trade with the idea of 'monsters under the bed' and to focus on liquid products where you can trade both sides.
Tom's favorite trades of the week include Apple short strangle 43%, hood short put spread 20%, SMH short iron condor 9 19%, and coin short put 18%.
The short interest in Peloton stock increased from approximately 111 million shares at the end of June to 165 million shares as of July 15, representing a 40% increase. More recent estimates suggest the short position is higher, though the short float percentage varies depending on how the tradeable float is defined.
The speaker manages a family portfolio as a single book with positions based on Netflix, making it more manageable. They suggest keeping things simple and not rolling trades.
The speaker suggests that covering the trade covers all the risk and that there is nothing else to think about. However, the speaker also suggests that rolling the trade out and either up or down can reduce some of the risk of the trade.
The bill has passed the House in July 2025 and the Senate Banking Committee advanced its version in May 2026 by a 15-9 vote. However, the full Senate has not voted yet, and it is being held up due to concerns about internal processes. The Senate Majority Leader John Thoon indicated that passage before the August recess was unlikely, but the floor process might begin. The midterm calendar leaves little room for a Senate vote and reconciliation with the House version.
The speaker has a small position (one to three percent) in cryptocurrency, the same for the last 10 years. The other person does not have any position.
Staying small is the primary defense against large market swings. Position sizing should be between 1-5% or 6% of your account, with 3% as a barometer. It's an art, not a science, and you need to stay comfortable with your risk tolerance.
You can be wrong and still make money.
The speaker suggests using between 25 and 50% of a portfolio for margin, adjusting based on volatility. When volatility is higher, they recommend closer to 50-60%, and lower when volatility is lower. They also mention that for larger accounts, the percentage should be lower, such as between 15 and 25%.
The NASDAQ traded over 7,800, but the S&P 500 did not. The S&P 500 was at 7796781, unchanged.
Bonds being down indicates mortgage rates are likely at their highest levels, which could hurt the daughter's mortgage rates.
The markets are more random than previously thought, and seasonality is not a reliable strategy.
Long calls have premiums attached, even if deep in the money, while long stock is a 50-50 shot with 100 deltas. Long stock uses more buying power than long calls, but buying the call and selling the put can use less buying power.
Leveraged ETFs like SQQQ or TQQQ are mentioned as having high volume and liquidity.
The speaker suggests covering the spread before noon for a small profit, emphasizing the importance of taking profits quickly and not overthinking.
56% of viewers said yes, 25% said no, and 25% said no. The speaker mentioned that Anthropic and Open AI are on the trillion-dollar path, but the majority of the audience believed it would not happen.
To maximize the probability of a pop profit by positioning outside the expected move.
The expected move is around $28.
Calendar spreads can be effective for small accounts, but the speaker suggests exploring diagonal spreads for better risk-reward profiles. They emphasize the importance of managing risk and profit targets.
The OTC derivatives market is currently valued at 846 trillion dollars, with the speaker noting that this is a significant increase from June 2025.
The speaker suggests that writing calls against a large position is not risky to the market, but it could be risky for the counterparty. They emphasize that the market is not typically involved in such large trades.
The stock market was trading at 7,000 in 2008.
The speaker sold Microsoft at $513.50.
The speaker suggests that insider selling should not necessarily make anyone nervous, as it could be due to tax obligations. They also mention that insiders might think prices are high, but this is not a definitive indicator.
The speaker mentions there are 8,000 advanced decline, unchanged stocks indicators and that they don't look at them for an opening trade. They also mention not looking at tren or any of those things in 30 years.
The speaker lists penny stocks, pink sheet stocks, meme stocks, meme coins, vanity coins, structured ETFs with high fees, and private structured products as financial products to avoid. They emphasize the risks associated with these products, such as high fees, lack of transparency, and potential for significant losses.
It's about cryptocasino gambling, which the speaker considers gambling for fun, not a serious investment.
Never. I sell volatility.
The speaker is questioning whether the recent Bitcoin price increase is a sustainable breakout.
The most popular misconception is waiting for confirmation of a move before entering a trade, which the speaker considers a poor strategy.
If you're in the front month of September, you might look to go out to October.
The speaker suggests a rule of thumb: for a $300 stock, a spread wider than 30 cents is too wide; for a $200 stock, wider than 20 cents is too wide. They also mention checking volume and open interest, and suggest placing orders around mid-price with small adjustments.
The speaker states that national debt does not directly affect trading decisions and is not part of any equations traders use. They suggest focusing on controllable factors rather than worrying about uncontrollable ones like national debt.
The speaker likes Intel at 85 and suggests a long diagonal spread in Intel.
The speaker does not use it often. It's one that uses a lot of buying power relative to other strategies that you can use. When do I use it? On a lower price stock, uh basis is low, volatility is high on the options, that's when I that's when I use it. Basis is low and volatility is low on the options. It's a consideration.
IBIT is up almost a dollar 90.
The speaker has never left the market and keeps all strategies consistent. They do not reduce strategies but keep them consistent.
You are very consistent.
The Treasury's bond buybacks, which were doubled to $4 billion per operation, were discussed as a potential intervention to combat rising yields. However, the market response indicated that the intervention may not be effective in preventing a genuine repricing of bonds. The speaker suggests that the scale of the buybacks was too small to have a significant impact on the market.
The 30-year bond is in a range of 4.7 to 5.25.
Commercial real estate faces headwinds due to reduced space demand and structural issues, while residential real estate is a sellers' market with limited supply. The speaker is not bullish on real estate currently.
The speaker is unsure about the width of the strangle and suggests that the market is pricing in a move of around 5.5%.
The speaker mentions that they turned down an offer of 200 billion, and it seemed ridiculous at the time. They acknowledge that it was a missed opportunity.
The speaker has not traded HPE (Hula Packard) in a long time and does not have an opinion on its range or performance. They compare it to Coca-Cola, stating it doesn't move much.
The Treasury market is bigger than Nvidia, but on a for traders, Nvidia's huge compared to treasuries.
Zero day options, which are short-term options, have become a significant part of the market, accounting for 60% of S&P index buying. The speaker suggests that the market calm observed might be due to the short expiration dates of these options, which prevent significant market movements. The speaker also notes that the options clearing corporation initially had concerns about market risk and margin requirements but later moved away from these concerns.
There is no evidence that zero-day trading has increased market volatility. In fact, volatility has decreased, and zero-day trading has supplied more positive gamma to the market.
It would if there was some trading in there. Unfortunately, USD Canadian dollar options don't trade at all. The currency pair trades a little bit, but hasn't really moved much.
The speaker does not see this as a significant problem, stating that they do not trade bonds outside of governments and that there is plenty of liquidity. They reference Amazon's bond issuance as an example of market liquidity supporting large trades.
Max loss and max draw down are the same thing. A spread is a spread, and a $30 spread can only go to $30 regardless of how much the product moves assuming it's SBX. The question is whether they are saying it's the same thing. The answer is yes.
A naked put is a straightforward strategy where you sell a put option, while a put ratio spread involves buying one put and selling another at a lower strike price. The put ratio spread is similar to a naked put but includes a synthetic short position, providing a cushion against market movements.
Theta decay over the weekend is unpredictable and varies depending on market conditions. It is not possible to predict exactly when the decay will occur, but it is known that it will happen by expiration. Liquidity providers may adjust volatility to account for potential news or events over the weekend. The decay can occur on Friday, stay bid, or come out on Monday, depending on market sentiment and events. There is no exact guide for when to sell premium, and it is an art rather than a science.
The list was pretty solid. Maybe post it someday.
XSP is cash-settled and does not have the risk of stock price movements after the close, unlike SPY. However, XSP may involve additional fees and has different tax implications compared to SPY.
The filtering process is simple and involves selecting stocks that are lower and bullish on the market, using options with a delta of 15 to 30, and focusing on monthly options with at least 30 days to expiration.
The speaker predicts a positive drift, suggesting that 2026 issuance will surpass 2025, citing increased capital raising for AI and other sectors. They estimate around 85% of the 2025 total, with a standard deviation of 70%.
The market's movement is attributed to the CPI data and the subsequent reaction, with some traders suggesting a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dynamic.
Yes, the speaker likes the trade and provides details on the trade setup.
The stock is currently at $138.
The speaker lists several trades, including an Apple put spread (46%), Intel strangle (28%), Google broken wing butterfly, and a BU short put. The speaker also expresses a dislike for trading B.
The optimal trade is a wide strangle, where the same distance is covered on the call side as the put side, allowing for twice the money on the call side.
The speaker prefers BIL over ESG due to lower fees and suggests using about 85-95% of the $100,000 account.
You shouldn't have your entire account wrapped in futures because you could get liquidated. If you have a $30,000 account, you're not trading ES, you're looking to trade me, which is a tenth of the size.
It helps predict direction or simply tells you about volatility and the risk of exaggerated moves.
Building a watch list is important as it helps identify liquid market leaders and active indices that move the markets. Essentials include leading liquid market leaders, such as NQ, and focusing on commodities and futures that trade 24/5 and move markets.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of displaying last net change, bid, and ask price in at least four columns, acknowledging the preference for high and low values.
The S&P 500's current trend is described as complacency rather than a melt-up.
The speaker argues that this rule would have kicked out nearly every generational winner too early. They suggest that taking profits early is a better strategy, as letting a winning trade continue can lead to losses. The speaker also mentions that most trades have a 50/50 chance of being a winner or a loser, making the rule less effective.
Single stock futures have been around for decades but haven't taken off. They've been redesigned to be more retail-friendly with a multiplier of 100 shares, offering 6 to 1 leverage compared to 4 to 1 for stocks. The speaker doubts they'll have a significant impact on the stock market, citing better liquidity in stocks.
Yes, it is normal. When option traders are successful, stock traders often struggle, and vice versa. This is due to the nature of their strategies and market conditions.
No, the ability to hold 100 shares has nothing to do with trading options. You can trade options with smaller capital by using spreads.
The speaker states that statistically, the answer is 50/50, but the dog pound's survey indicates 56% of people believe it will happen, while 44% think it won't. The speaker acknowledges the uncertainty and suggests that the market's movement is influenced by various factors.
Earnings results matter to traders if they have a position, but traders often care more about the event itself and the volatility it brings. Earnings results are not always directly correlated with stock price movements due to market expectations and pricing.
No. You have to think about things differently. In a IRA account, if you're selling puts in their cash secured, you can go to the entire account balance.
Haboob
email Tom at lostdog.com for questions
It's a little bit of a crowded trade, but people love their metals.
The speaker considers bonds to be a commodity, despite the ability to issue more of them, due to the demand for long-term bonds.
The micro gold contract (MGC) is 10-oz, while the 1-oz contract is referred to as OZ. The GC (100-oz) is larger.
Nothing. I'm fine.
The VIX one-day volatility is reported as 564, indicating extremely low volatility and a market halt.
The market is experiencing high volatility despite rising interest rates, and there's a discussion about gamma risk. The speaker mentions that most retail investors don't understand the buying power requirements to cover gamma risk, and that volatility is currently cheap, which can lead to gamma risk. However, the speaker also notes that when volatility is low, it usually doesn't get killed, and the VIX futures are up today.
It could be a short squeeze, but it's also a meme stock. The speaker is unsure and suggests it's a trade if the stock drops under eight bucks.
It doesn't matter anymore because they roll all of their longer dated put on a 45 days to the next month when there's around 21 days to expiration.
The speaker prefers Wendy's over McDonald's and Burger King, but acknowledges that the choice is subjective and others may have different preferences.
SMCI is not expected to return to all-time highs. It has lost 75% of its value from its high and is unlikely to reach those levels soon.
No.
Traditional sector diversification is largely a calm market strategy that becomes less effective when you actually need it.
The trader accidentally bought an at the money call instead of selling it as part of an iron fly spread, which involved selling the guts and buying the two out of the money options.
Diversification across different products is recommended to manage risk. It's important not to be all in on a single asset or strategy, as this increases unnecessary risk. Having a mix of long equities, short premium, and other instruments can help spread risk. The key is to maintain reasonable trade sizes relative to your account size.
It's a sound market strategy if the market cooperates, but there are risks such as market movement, fees, and the use of margin. It's not guaranteed and may not be suitable for all account sizes.
The speaker suggests keeping unused capital in secure assets like treasuries or equivalents (BIL/ESG) rather than passively investing in SPY or QQQ, especially at all-time highs. They mention that while SPY and QQQ may offer higher returns, the current market conditions and risks make them less advisable at this time.
The speaker suggests that firms like Jane Street and others are moving from public to private debt to gain flexibility, speed, and access to capital. They are investing heavily in AI and computing infrastructure, which could lead to vertical integration. This shift might change how markets operate by allowing these firms to control both capital and computational tools, potentially altering market dynamics.
IVR (Implied Volatility Ratio) doesn't matter for a covered call strategy on existing stock holdings because the focus is on the direction of the stock. However, higher IVR can lead to higher premiums, which is a benefit.
The speaker suggests looking for big movers and using a percentage threshold like 2%, 3%, or 5% to identify stocks moving significantly. They also mention that pre and postmarket scans should focus on big movers, while trading day strategies involve looking at futures and intraday movements.
The best startup business advice includes taking the first step, trusting your instincts, being flexible, staying true to yourself, surrounding yourself with confident people, and squeezing every dollar of raised capital as hard as possible. It also emphasizes the importance of having a clear runway and being prepared to raise outside capital when needed.
The speaker is unsure and says 'Sure, why not?' but leans towards Apple, suggesting that no one would say yes.
The speaker paid $125,000 for a two-bedroom condo in Newberg Plaza in 1986 or 1988.
Close it quickly to secure profit
The speaker recommends a short put spread strategy with defined risk, suggesting it as a way to lean a little bit long. They also mention the importance of being selective due to low volatility and suggest keeping contracts small.
It's all coincidence unless you're looking at Cuban holidays. The speaker rules out Canadian holidays, Christmas rallies, and suggests it's a seasonality thing.
Yes, it's described as a chicken version of Portillos, with a similar business model focusing on chicken tenders.
The speaker believes there is always time to put the position on and does not think one has to be early. However, they emphasize the importance of being in before the turn when selling the market, as the velocity of the turn is fast.
The practical question is less about whether to sell everything and more about how much risk you're willing to take if you're a passive long.
The speaker sold puts at 155 when SpaceX was trading at 170, but the stock dropped significantly, leading to losses. The speaker had to roll the puts out and eventually recovered some of the losses.
The speaker avoids trading VIX naked calls, calendar spreads, and selling calls due to market conditions and strategy preferences.
Regular hours are recommended as markets are good, while global hours have wider spreads and lower liquidity. Markets like SPX, XSP, ES are better during regular hours, while crude oil, gold, and silver can be traded 24 hours with some liquidity.
I think the rotation boys will jump into Apple.
The market has been in a sideways range with premium contraction, and the speaker has been taking profits fast.
It's a double-edged sword, but I think it's a little bit of overkill for the equity market at least. I'm all for predictive markets, but I don't need the S&P 499.
The speaker suggests looking at the expected move of a stock over a specific period (30-50 days), then setting a target at 25% or 50% of that expected move. They emphasize that this should be less than the expected move and serve as a target, not a hard stop.
For defined risk positions, it's recommended to roll or close the position after 21 days as it cleans up the position tab. However, if left until 14 days or less, the difference is minimal, and there's not much urgency to adjust.
Robinhood Ventures, which invests in pre-IPO deals.
The speaker suggests moving funds to accounts with more optionality and flexibility, such as margin accounts, for greater liquidity and flexibility. They emphasize the importance of having liquid funds and avoiding long-term commitments.
If the call is in the money and the stock is above the strike, the profit is already realized. If the trader wants to keep the stock, they can do nothing and the position will expire. If they want to continue the position, they can buy back the call and sell another one.
Roll calls forward to avoid assignment risk and large tax bill.
A lot better than we handle really bad losing streaks. A lot lot better.
The speaker suggests that keeping the rental property as a diversification is a valid approach, but also acknowledges that managing real estate can be burdensome. They emphasize the importance of considering the scale of the investment and the potential challenges of managing a rental property.
The answer is no, they come back. People are being opportunistic and learn to be opportunistic, so drawdowns shouldn't scare anybody.
The speaker states that Goldman Sachs does not need to split, as the stock price is high but not at all-time highs. They also mention that stock splits are not necessary for companies if they are performing well and do not need to make their stock more approachable.
The speaker explains that selling premiums and focusing on high probability trades is a strategy to develop a culture of more wins than losses for new traders, even though it doesn't guarantee profitability.
Loss aversion is a cognitive bias where investors react more strongly to losses than to equivalent gains. It often leads to emotional decisions in trading.
Loss aversion leads to holding onto losing positions in hopes of breaking even and selling winning positions too quickly, which can result in increased risk-taking and poor trading outcomes.
The speaker suggests buying options occasionally to mix things up, but emphasizes that it should be out-of-the-money options, not deep in-the-money ones. They compare buying options to buying insurance, suggesting it's a form of protection rather than a direct investment.
No, I'm disagreeing with your whole insurance argument and I've always hated this argument when it comes to option trading because I don't consider option sellers to be like insurance.
The rational investor would choose the second option (100% chance of gaining $2,000) because the expected return on that is $3,000.
Nico started trading when he was 12 years old.
The biggest story of the last two days is the rally in Bitcoin.
Bonds can rally for various reasons, including geopolitical fears, but the 10-year yield hitting its highest in 19 months during geopolitical tensions shows the textbook may not always apply. Strategic trading involves appreciating price and making decisions based on judgment of whether the price is cheap or expensive.
Skew points out the velocity, the expected velocity of the stock's movement. It represents how the market interprets velocity of risk. Call skew indicates expected upside velocity, while put skew indicates expected downside velocity.
You can buy a single stock future or sell a single stock future and sell a call or a put against it, but not at the CME. You'd have to do that on the option exchange. So, basically, you're putting up the capital. So, even though it is technically a covered call, you're putting up the capital on two different places. So it's really expensive to trade. You're not getting any capital relief.
Buying a single stock future and selling a covered call are different strategies with different capital requirements and risk profiles. The former requires putting up capital for both positions, while the latter can be synthetically replicated by selling a put with the same strike price.
The odds are 65 to 1 according to DraftKings.
The speaker and Tomaso were market makers in the late 90s during the dotcom boom. They noticed that while individual stocks were trading heavily, indexes were not. This led to the idea of building a platform called Thinker Swim to support options trading, which eventually evolved into a product by early 2020.
The 100 puts are trading around $4.
The best trader depends on the day, with Scott being a bigger shot taker and more cerebral than others.
No, the speaker attributes success to luck rather than skill.
The advice given is to focus on controllable aspects of life, such as investment decisions and spending habits, rather than worrying about uncontrollable factors like bond market changes or geopolitical events. It's suggested to invest in digital assets and consider a second job if desired, while not being overly concerned about interest rate changes or geopolitical risks.
Vinnie was 73 when the speaker had him.
The speaker does not worry about the Fed chair's speech, stating that it's unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. They mention that the Fed chair's potential statements are limited to rate decisions and inflation control, which are already anticipated.
The speaker answers no, explaining that they do not trade AAP because of its name and the speaker's personal experience with the company.
Yes, in decades.
The speaker acknowledges that the bond market's impact on tech is a mix of factors, but believes it's less significant than previously thought.
Yes, the speaker got the hoodie from Costco.
The speaker suggests using short-term instruments like BIL or ESG, and sometimes Treasury ETFs or CDs, depending on the account type and liquidity needs.
The speaker believes that CDs offer better returns than money funds and that the interest rates for CDs are more favorable than those for S&P box spreads. They also mention that the rates for S&P box spreads are typically 25 to 50 basis points above risk-free rates, and that the market is tight with limited opportunities for high returns.
The speaker expects a muted market behavior before a Friday expiration, with a potential for slight buying late in the day due to concerns about a markup. However, they note that this particular expiration has been very flat over the last 28 years, suggesting little to no significant movement.
The speaker discusses the alignment of CEO incentives with long-term shareholder interests versus the potential for executives to prioritize aggressive spending regardless of near-term returns. They suggest that while stock price is the primary metric, the effectiveness of this approach depends on the company and the specific targets set. They also express concerns about CEO overpayment and the lack of significant differences in performance between CEOs across companies.
No, the speaker does not like jade lizards after the move happens. They prefer high volatility.
The decision to use shorter or longer-dated options for earnings trades is based on the timing of the trade relative to earnings. Post-earnings trades typically use longer-dated options to avoid holding positions during volatile periods.
Look for symbols with good liquidity on the platform you're trading. There are multiple products with great liquidity, and you can use liquidity meters to identify them. Avoid products with bad liquidity.
Balance account growth with proper position sizing based on opportunities, not forcing trades. Wins are more important than collecting premium, and you should adjust based on market conditions and opportunities.
If the VIX is below its historical mean (17-19 range), widen the strikes and go out longer dated. If it's above that, you can afford to get a little bit richer.
They don't have Fridays.
The expected move for AMD is $40.
The speaker suggests that the VIX hasn't moved significantly, indicating that the volatility is relatively low.
When using portfolio margin, the sizing should be based on the same principles as span margin for futures and options. Typically, it's 30% to 35% less buying power compared to a regular margin account. For example, if you use $1,000 in a regular margin account, you would use $650 in a portfolio margin account.
No, the speaker doesn't worry about dark pools. They believe that for retail investors trading small quantities, the order flow is handled efficiently by off-exchange trading, and dark pools are not a concern.
The speaker suggests that box spreads are an intelligent trade, collecting a couple of points, but questions the return on SPX boxes, noting that the return is 36, which is lower than the 475 on a CD. The speaker also implies that the trade was likely made two months ago.
The speaker suggests that the trade size should be proportional to the account size, and that a trade that is too large for the account size can be risky. They also suggest that a portion of the account should be kept in dry powder for opportunities.
Sizing small and being consistent with trading strategies can help manage the psychology of losing trades.
Theta decay is not consistent and does not have to happen every day. Volatility can affect theta decay, and it can even expand against the trader if the stock doesn't move. The speaker suggests that the idea of theta decay being constant is an oversimplification, especially by charlatans on the internet.
The speaker reassures that they are fine and not worried about position glitching.
The speaker suggests that this belief might be a self-fulfilling prophecy, as traders' actions based on this belief could influence market behavior. However, it's noted that this is speculative and not definitively proven.
There is no statistical evidence to suggest that post earnings directional trends are meaningful or tradable. Post earnings trades should focus on strategies like premium selling if IVR remains high, reenter expected move strangles closest to 45 days, and avoid post earnings iron condors if IV has come down. The highest pop trade after earnings is a ratio spread to fade the direction the earnings went.
The speaker believes the merger is inevitable in the long term but not currently relevant. They are bullish on SpaceX but have been wrong on direction.