Trade idea
Walmart Covered Call
A covered call can be synthetically replicated by selling a put with the same strike price.
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StrategyCovered Call
AssetEquity
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen the stock price is expected to have a limited upward move.
Target / exitLock in a loss if the stock price drops significantly.
Invalidation / stopIf the stock price moves significantly against the position.
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Capital exposure if the stock price moves significantly against the position
Trade idea
Trade idea wheel strategy
short premium when no premium to roll
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Strategywheel strategy
Assetfutures options
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerwhen futures options are in the money and no premium to roll
Target / exitlet expire into futures contract
SpeakerNotre Doggus
Risks- delivery risk
- market movement
Trade idea
SPX put selling
The speaker believes that selling puts on SPX is a viable strategy given the current market conditions.
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Strategyput selling
Assetindex
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerSPX is down 31
Target / exit105 or something
Invalidation / stopif it gets into the high 120
SpeakerTony
Risks- Market moves against the position
- Volatility changes
Trade idea
Trade idea jade lizard
reduces risk on naked put
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Strategyjade lizard
Assetstock
Entry / triggerstock trading at $500
Target / exitcollect credit to the upside
Invalidation / stopbreak even under $430
Speakerunknown
Structure / legs- sell 510-520 call spread
- sell SE 430 put
Trade idea
Trade idea Covered Call or Covered Put
The speaker suggests that the covered call or covered put can be an intelligent trade if the direction is correctly identified.
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StrategyCovered Call or Covered Put
Entry / triggerGet the direction right
SpeakerUnknown
Risks- Incorrect market direction
Trade idea
Trade idea Buy stocks that have been destroyed in a sell-off
There's opportunity in individual stocks during market panic
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StrategyBuy stocks that have been destroyed in a sell-off
Entry / triggerWhen there's a panic in the market
Target / exitCapitalizing on the bounce back of individual stocks
SpeakerSpeaker 2
Trade idea
Trade idea
The simplest approach to trading is to take profits when markets rise and add positions when markets fall.
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Entry / triggerWhen markets go up a lot, take a little money off the table. When markets go down a lot, add a little.
SpeakerUnknown
Trade idea
Trade idea Rolling short-term options at 21 days for better risk adjustment and return
Selling short-dated premium is not mathematically superior, but it does allow for more money to be made in a shorter period of time, albeit with more risk.
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StrategyRolling short-term options at 21 days for better risk adjustment and return
Time horizonShort-term
Entry / triggerWhen looking to trade short-term options
SpeakerTom
Risks- Taking more risk with faster gamma risk
- Volatility can cause significant changes in the market
Q&A
What's the biggest story of the last two days?
The biggest story of the last two days is the rally in Bitcoin.
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Actionable takeawayBitcoin experienced a significant rally, which is highlighted as the biggest story.
Q&A
Conventional wisdom, Mr. Batista says when bonds rally
Bonds can rally for various reasons, including geopolitical fears, but the 10-year yield hitting its highest in 19 months during geopolitical tensions shows the textbook may not always apply. Strategic trading involves appreciating price and making decisions based on judgment of whether the price is cheap or expensive.
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Actionable takeawayStrategic trading involves understanding price dynamics and making decisions based on judgment rather than relying solely on conventional wisdom.
Q&A
What is meant by skew?
Skew points out the velocity, the expected velocity of the stock's movement. It represents how the market interprets velocity of risk. Call skew indicates expected upside velocity, while put skew indicates expected downside velocity.
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Actionable takeawaySkew is a measure of market expectations about the velocity of stock movement, indicating whether the market anticipates upward or downward movement.
Q&A
Can I buy a single stock future? This person asks, and sell a covered call against it.
You can buy a single stock future or sell a single stock future and sell a call or a put against it, but not at the CME. You'd have to do that on the option exchange. So, basically, you're putting up the capital. So, even though it is technically a covered call, you're putting up the capital on two different places. So it's really expensive to trade. You're not getting any capital relief.
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Actionable takeawayBuying a single stock future and selling a covered call is possible but involves high capital exposure and is not cost-effective due to the need for separate capital allocation on different exchanges.
Q&A
What is the difference between buying a single stock future and selling a covered call?
Buying a single stock future and selling a covered call are different strategies with different capital requirements and risk profiles. The former requires putting up capital for both positions, while the latter can be synthetically replicated by selling a put with the same strike price.
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Actionable takeawaySynthetic positions can be used to replicate the risk and reward profile of other strategies.
Q&A
What are the chances that the Cubs will meet the White Socks in a 2026 World Series?
The odds are 65 to 1 according to DraftKings.
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Actionable takeawayThe probability is very low, with high odds against.
Q&A
What were the series of events that let you realize the grid was up and you thought about making a platform?
The speaker and Tomaso were market makers in the late 90s during the dotcom boom. They noticed that while individual stocks were trading heavily, indexes were not. This led to the idea of building a platform called Thinker Swim to support options trading, which eventually evolved into a product by early 2020.
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Actionable takeawayThe realization that individual stocks were more active than indexes during the dotcom boom led to the development of a platform focused on options trading.
Q&A
Where are the 100 puts?
The 100 puts are trading around $4.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker is discussing the price of specific put options.
Q&A
Who is the best trader, Tom, Tony, or Scott?
The best trader depends on the day, with Scott being a bigger shot taker and more cerebral than others.
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Actionable takeawayThe best trader can vary depending on the day and context.
Q&A
Would you say it was a good stock picker?
No, the speaker attributes success to luck rather than skill.
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Actionable takeawaySuccess in stock picking may be due to luck rather than skill.
Q&A
What advice do you have for the average low middle income worker who's not sure what to do, just starting to get into crypto, Ethereum, Chain Link? Should I get a second job? Should I hunker down? Can you give me some ground level mindset and and you know next action steps to take at this time?
The advice given is to focus on controllable aspects of life, such as investment decisions and spending habits, rather than worrying about uncontrollable factors like bond market changes or geopolitical events. It's suggested to invest in digital assets and consider a second job if desired, while not being overly concerned about interest rate changes or geopolitical risks.
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Actionable takeawayFocus on controllable aspects of life, such as investment decisions and spending habits, and consider investing in digital assets while being mindful of personal financial goals.
Q&A
How old were you when you had Vinnie?
Vinnie was 73 when the speaker had him.
Q&A
Do you worry about what the Fed chair could say tomorrow at the Jackson Hole speech?
The speaker does not worry about the Fed chair's speech, stating that it's unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. They mention that the Fed chair's potential statements are limited to rate decisions and inflation control, which are already anticipated.
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Actionable takeawayThe speaker suggests that the Fed's speech is unlikely to have a major impact on the market, as the potential statements are limited to rate decisions and inflation control.
Q&A
Do you ever trade your favorite trade in AAP?
The speaker answers no, explaining that they do not trade AAP because of its name and the speaker's personal experience with the company.
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Actionable takeawayAvoid trading stocks with names that may have negative connotations or personal associations.
Q&A
Is this the best opportunity we have seen in recently?
Yes, in decades.
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Actionable takeawayThe current market conditions are considered one of the best opportunities in decades.
Q&A
Can I can I say all of the above here a little bit?
The speaker acknowledges that the bond market's impact on tech is a mix of factors, but believes it's less significant than previously thought.
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Actionable takeawayThe bond market's impact on tech stocks is not as significant as previously thought, and the market is more volatile with mixed performance among chip stocks.
Q&A
Did you get this hoodie from Costco?
Yes, the speaker got the hoodie from Costco.
Q&A
Where would you put the cash portion in a $100,000 account?
The speaker suggests using short-term instruments like BIL or ESG, and sometimes Treasury ETFs or CDs, depending on the account type and liquidity needs.
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Actionable takeawayUse short-term instruments like BIL or ESG for liquidity, and consider Treasury ETFs or CDs for non-trading accounts.
Q&A
What is the speaker's opinion on the interest rates for CDs and other instruments?
The speaker believes that CDs offer better returns than money funds and that the interest rates for CDs are more favorable than those for S&P box spreads. They also mention that the rates for S&P box spreads are typically 25 to 50 basis points above risk-free rates, and that the market is tight with limited opportunities for high returns.
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Actionable takeawayCDs offer better returns than money funds, and S&P box spreads have limited opportunities for high returns due to tight market conditions.
Q&A
What is the expected market behavior before a Friday expiration?
The speaker expects a muted market behavior before a Friday expiration, with a potential for slight buying late in the day due to concerns about a markup. However, they note that this particular expiration has been very flat over the last 28 years, suggesting little to no significant movement.
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Actionable takeawayMarket behavior before a Friday expiration is typically muted, with potential for slight buying late in the day due to markup concerns, but historical data suggests minimal movement.