the bond market has been performing well and the speaker has been long bonds
The speaker is short a wide strangle in MU with a $300 width, adjusting it frequently and referring to it as a grinding trade.
better off being directional with very low implied volatility
The trade idea involves maintaining the covered call position while considering the possibility of rolling the call to a higher strike price to keep the wheel alive.
great way to learn
the 8115 strangle for about 240 is a marginal trade
This is a calendar spread, which I thought was super cheap.
Selling puts at 3500 and 3600 when gold was around 4,000 was a good trade due to the premium available.
The speaker is selling puts at 3500 and 3600, indicating a bullish or neutral stance on the underlying asset.
Trading earnings is most effective when volatility is high and risk is managed carefully.
digital assets have potential for recovery and can be long-term investments
The speaker emphasizes that trading earnings is most effective when volatility is high, as this provides the best opportunities. They also mention the importance of avoiding buying premium and staying outside the expected move, preferring small wins over large risks.
The speaker acknowledges the rotation, noting that Meta, Google, and AMD are down, while other stocks are up.
The win rate is not a meaningless statistic. It is important because building a process and methodology to know how to win is valuable. Some people just don't know how to win, and this leads to hoping for outlier moves or lottery tickets instead of focusing on consistent winning strategies.
The speaker suggests selling a strangle with deltas between 16 to 22, and mentions that the expiration could be September or October, with a recommendation to roll to October in a week.
It's better to sell covered calls when the stock is down for the day, as it allows for higher volatility and better pricing. Selling puts into weakness is also preferred.
The 5 DTE includes the weekend and is based on calendar days, not trading days.
The speaker changed the question from closing above 315 to 320, and stated a 70% chance of closing above 320 by Friday.
A strangle in Hood with 80 strike put and 115 strike call for about 240.
The speaker acknowledges that this is a common scenario and that it can lead to significant losses.
Yes, the speaker has experienced this multiple times, including in silver and Micron this year. They mention that such events happen roughly 1% of the time and have occurred more frequently than they would like.
It's a different account. I am not good on the on the I on the iPad. Um moving around.
The speaker suggests that gold's recent performance may be a bounce rather than a genuine flight to quality, given its significant drop and subsequent recovery.
The speaker believes the rally is not based on economic data but is a cyclical trading range.
The speaker suggests that FOMC minutes are often digested by the market, and people attribute market movements to these minutes, even though they are usually in overbought or oversold situations. The speaker implies that the market is already priced in everything, and the minutes are not a significant factor.
The speaker discusses how tariff refunds, such as those received by Apple, can affect corporate earnings. They argue that these refunds are not new information and were already factored into earnings expectations. The speaker suggests that the impact of these refunds on earnings is not as significant as it might appear, as the refunds were anticipated and the market already priced them in.
Buying options is not a fair bet as implied volatility can crush returns before the stock even moves. It does not pay, and the outlier move where it pays is rare and hard to achieve.
The speaker believes that trading earnings is most effective when volatility is high, as this provides the best opportunities. They also emphasize the importance of avoiding buying premium and staying outside the expected move, preferring small wins over large risks.
The speaker believes Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and XRP have limited upside and are at or near their cycle lows. They suggest a short-term outlook where the market may sell off, potentially whacking Bitcoin the most. The speaker is long Bitcoin but acknowledges the risks and regulatory environment.
The S&P is up 40, and the market has been trading green on the screen.