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Are We In The Middle of a MELT-UP? (& Tom's Mullet) | 8.18 | One Lucky Dog

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Trade ideas

Trade idea

MEES trading with a directional bias

MEES can become a big product very quickly in your account if you have a directional bias

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Strategytrading with a directional bias
Assetfutures
Time horizonimmediate
Entry / triggerhaving a directional bias
Target / exit50/50 shot
Invalidation / stopno specific stop mentioned
Speakerspeaker
Trade idea

Nike put spread

profit from downside risk if stock remains below strike price

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Strategyput spread
Assetstock
ExpirationSeptember
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerstock at multi-year low
Target / exitsell at a dollar
Invalidation / stopstock price movement
SpeakerVinnie
Structure / legs
  • 372 puts
Risks
  • stock price rises
  • volatility changes
Trade idea

BABA earnings play

BABA's earnings play is a trade idea

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Strategyearnings play
Assetstock
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerearnings play
Target / exitpop of 61%
Invalidation / stopmarket volatility
SpeakerScott
Risks
  • market volatility
  • unexpected earnings results
Trade idea

Trade idea

In low volatility environments, longer-term options can synthetically increase volatility exposure.

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Entry / triggerWhen volatility is low, extend duration to longer-term options (e.g., 60 days).
SpeakerSpeaker
Risks
  • Volatility may increase unexpectedly
  • Market direction may change
Trade idea

Trade idea selling put spreads

put spreads are enticing to sell here

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Strategyselling put spreads
Entry / triggerwhen puts are cheap and put spreads are expensive
Speakerunknown
Trade idea

Trade idea selling

NQ puts are more capital efficient than QQQ puts

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Strategyselling
Assetoptions
Time horizonshort-term
Entry / triggerselling a 12 delta put on NQ
Target / exit10 times the size
Invalidation / stoptrade size
Speakerspeaker
Risks
  • trade size
Trade idea

Trade idea naked call

Selling naked calls on stocks with call skew can be advantageous due to higher pricing in the market.

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Strategynaked call
Assetoptions
Entry / triggerstock with call skew
SpeakerUnknown
Risks
  • Market movement against the position
Trade idea

Trade idea MEES

Using MEES can help manage the margin requirements when trading futures.

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StrategyMEES
Entry / triggerWhen trading futures, consider using MEES (Mini ES) to reduce the margin requirement.
SpeakerThomas

Insights

Q&A

Q&A

The S&P keeps hitting fresh records even with long-term yields elevated. In fact, last night I think the bonds the ZB traded in the one in the 107 handle.

The speaker mentions that the ZB (likely the 10-year Treasury bond) traded in the 107 handle, which is a reference to the price level. They suggest that this is a guaranteed rate hike, indicating that the elevated yields are a sign of anticipated interest rate increases.

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Actionable takeawayElevated long-term yields, such as the ZB trading in the 107 handle, are seen as a signal of expected rate hikes, which can impact market dynamics and investor sentiment.
Q&A

What would be a meltup then?

A meltup is a term used to describe a market rally that is more intense than a regular rally. It is characterized by a significant increase in prices over a short period, often leading to a rapid and substantial rise in the market.

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Actionable takeawayThe term 'meltup' refers to a market rally that is more intense and rapid than a regular rally, often leading to significant price increases over a short period.
Q&A

I have sold uh portfolio covered uh puts on uh and I'm I'm trading on the um the thinker slim platform. One of the things I've noticed watching you lately is you keep uh bringing up this IVR and I I I don't believe that it's available on this on this particular platform.

IVR is available on the platform but is mislabeled as IBP (implied volatility percentile). It can be found in the drop-down menu or by contacting support. The speaker uses IVR for consistency and context around implied volatility.

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Actionable takeawayIVR is available on the platform but mislabeled. It can be found in the drop-down menu or by contacting support.
Q&A

Is using the VIX as a main gauge for whether conditions are attractive enough to put trades on actually a useful framework or am I oversimplifying something that depends more on a single volatility number?

The speaker suggests that using the VIX as a gauge is useful, but prefers forward/VX for daily volatility movement. They note that the VIX predicts future closing values, while forward/VX reflects daily changes. The speaker emphasizes consistency in using a single metric.

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Actionable takeawayUse forward/VX for daily volatility movement rather than the VIX, which predicts future closing values.
Q&A

Is that what you tell Chris?

The speaker says that the line about small really being big is their big line.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker's line about small really being big is their big line.
Q&A

Why should we listen to you?

Because I listen to ideas and value them regardless of their source.

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Actionable takeawayValue diverse sources of ideas in trading decisions.
Q&A

Is Nvidia's Jensen Hung financing the AOP buildout a sign of something?

It's a sign of potential AI investment, but the speaker is skeptical about it being a bubble.

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Actionable takeawayNvidia's investment in AI may indicate a bubble, but the speaker is uncertain.
Q&A

What's more, what's a more effective entry to look for when selling puts or ratio spreads, a down day or a V spike?

Usually you get a V spike on a down day, but you'll get a V spike in ETFs like the Q's and SPY. You might actually get a little bit of volatility contraction in some of the stocks.

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Actionable takeawayA V spike is typically observed on a down day, especially in ETFs like the Q's and SPY, and may be accompanied by volatility contraction in certain stocks.
Q&A

What types of metrics do you guys look at to make the decision of should I put something on with 30 days or should I put something on at 60 days?

The decision is subjective and depends on volatility. In high volatility, shorter-term options (30 days) are preferred. In low volatility, longer-term options (60 days) are preferred to synthetically increase volatility exposure.

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Actionable takeawayIn low volatility environments, extend duration to longer-term options to synthetically increase volatility exposure.
Q&A

Is rising leverage a sign of confidence or does it make the next selloff even more dangerous?

Rising leverage can be a sign of confidence as it indicates investors are taking on more debt to invest. However, it also makes the next selloff more dangerous because increased leverage can amplify losses during market downturns.

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Actionable takeawayRising leverage indicates confidence but increases risk during market downturns.
Q&A

ask a question about selling puts in the Q's maybe like 7 days out versus selling 45day SI puts versus selling uh NQ future

The speaker discusses selling puts in the Q's, 45-day SI puts, and NQ futures, but the answer is not fully provided in the transcript.

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Actionable takeawayThe question is about comparing different put-selling strategies, but the answer is not fully provided.
Q&A

Is the best way to say that the NQ put and the QQQ put are similar?

They are similar in terms of buying power and leverage, but NQ is more capital efficient.

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Actionable takeawayNQ puts are more capital efficient than QQQ puts.
Q&A

Any thoughts on BU?

The speaker does not have thoughts on BU, stating they discussed it earlier and prefer being long rather than short.

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Actionable takeawayAvoid shorting BU; consider being long instead.
Q&A

When will SpaceX implied volatility rank or any new stock be accurate? Is it after a certain period of time or some kind of movement?

It takes time. IVR really works after one year, but after six months, you can kind of roll with it because it's probably going to be pretty fair. But a year, everything we do with existing stocks is goes one back one year in time. Now, we you could go back longer, you can go back two years or three years, but I don't think it's as effective. I think one year, we did a lot of research on this, one year is the most effective statistic um when it comes to IVR. If you're using like things like beta or stuff like that, you can use three months or six months, but if you're using IVR, I think one year is probably the most accurate. It's subjective, but it's probably the most accurate. SpaceX, I would say after 6 months, you're probably good to go.

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Actionable takeawayIVR is most effective after one year, but can be used with some accuracy after six months. SpaceX's IV rank is currently at six, indicating lower volatility.
Q&A

When is it best to use ETF or ETF options and when is it best to use futures or futures options when trading commodities?

The speaker suggests preferring ETF options for high-level trading but recommends futures for specific commodities like oil (CL) and gold (GC) due to liquidity and tradability. ETFs are preferred for certain assets like silver (SLV) and gold (GC) based on liquidity and tradability. The key factors are liquidity, tradability, contract size, and risk leverage.

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Actionable takeawayPrioritize liquidity and tradability when choosing between ETFs and futures. Use futures for commodities with higher liquidity and tradability, and ETFs for specific assets like silver and gold.
Q&A

What do you think about Hood?

Hood is the speaker's best performer this year. They buy Robin Hood on every down tick and sell puts on every down tick. They also sell puts in Coinbase when the stock gets to around 140, under 150ish.

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Actionable takeawayBuy Robin Hood on every down tick and sell puts on every down tick for potential gains.
Q&A

Are you saying if uh ES is uh has around uh 31 then shouldn't be SPX in the same range?

The speaker suggests that if ES (E-mini S&P 500) has an IV percentile around 31, SPX (S&P 500) should be in a similar range. If not, it indicates a potential issue with the data feed or platform.

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Actionable takeawayIf IV percentile values for SPX and ES are significantly different, it may indicate a data feed issue rather than a market anomaly.
Q&A

You can check out atsnoff on money on my YouTube channel.

The speaker mentions checking out 'atsnoff on money' on their YouTube channel.

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Actionable takeawayThe speaker promotes their YouTube channel for financial content.